If Next Year's Fantasy Football Draft Was Today......

Sorry I've been M.I.A., but my laptop crashed and that has put me in a blogging tailspin. Here's something to think about for next year's draft (let me know what your thoughts are).

2008 First Round Fantasy Rankings in a PPR League:

1. Adrian Peterson – Best O-Line, best back-up, most explosive runner.
2. LaDanian Tomlinson – Losing Cam Cameron really hurt LT this year, but his numbers are still great for a first round pick and he’s a gamer.
3. Joseph Addai – Potent offense and catches the ball out of the backfield.
4. Reggie Bush – 19.5 points per game and plays hurt.
5. Tom Brady – Doesn’t miss games, pass happy team, no problem running up the score (something Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy don’t do), but don’t expect 31.0 points per game again. I think 25.0 points per game is more realistic. So many damn weapons!
6. Randy Moss – Yes he might get injured, yes he’s another year older, but if you throw out the season with the Raiders, we don’t even have that discussion. Moss should be good for 20 plus points per game (26.72 right now).
7. Terrell Owens – It’s tough to take a WR this early, but you just can’t ignore the RB injury factor in today’s NFL and T.O. is putting up 23.3 points per game. Why would that change next year with Romo under center?
8. Brian Westbrook – Marshal Faulk type numbers when healthy. If McNabb isn’t in Philly, then Westy drops out of the first round. Currently killing it with 24.57 points per game.
9. Steven Jackson – Either a bit too low, or too high. Bulger can’t stay healthy, Bruce is long in the tooth and Torry Holt has a knee issue. There’s also a potential coaching change and an O-Line that’s a wreck. Good grief!
10. Marshawn Lynch – Very physical runner and produced with two different QB’s, which is always a good sign. Perfect spot to grab a RB, then snag a top flight WR on the way back.
11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Not the most durable WR, but as long as Chad Johnson is on the other side, T.J. is good for 20 plus points per game. I’ll take that from my first round pick any day. Housh is money right now at just over 22 points per game.
12. Reggie Wayne – Again, I’m looking for production with my first round pick and Reggie Wayne is the poster boy for that. He is averaging 19.39 points per tilt and he doesn’t miss games. Peyton Manning has proved to be highly durable and Wayne gets it done with or without Marvin Harrison.

Hold.....Hold.....HOLD!!!

How much longer can players with injury histories such as T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth hold on?

Every single one of the above mentioned players missed time last year (Peterson at Oklahoma) and the fate of hundreds of thousands of fantasy football leagues rest on their shoulders. The prescence of Moss and Stallworth makes Wes Welker a top five fantasy wide receiver and Welker is absolutely crushing his ADP (average draft position), so as a Welker owner - I need Stallworth and Moss on the field.

I hate to put it out there, but I think the fantasy football injury gremlins are going to rear their ugly heads and take out at least two of the players I wrote about in the first sentence. I can't even mention their names, kind of like not saying "Macbeth" in the theatre - it's bad luck.

Here are the injury odds on those studs for week 9: T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 3 to 1, Brian Westbrook - 2.5 to 1, Adrian Peterson 7 to 1, Randy Moss 6.5 to 1, and the odds on Donte Stallworth (who's shed his 2005 nickname of "Stallworthlessness) getting injured in week 9 are 5 to 1.

If T.J. Housh goes down, I'm gonna say it's with an injury to his right foot (possible heel injury). Westbrook could be any number of things, but it's always safe to bet on the knee with him. Moss and Stallworth both get the hamstring and last but not least, Adrian "All Day" Peterson would probably be sidelined with an ankle sprain if he were to go down.

Now nobody wants to see these guys get hurt, but it's definitely a reality we all have to face. Hold your breath and try to survive week 9 - good luck!