If Next Year's Fantasy Football Draft Was Today......

Sorry I've been M.I.A., but my laptop crashed and that has put me in a blogging tailspin. Here's something to think about for next year's draft (let me know what your thoughts are).

2008 First Round Fantasy Rankings in a PPR League:

1. Adrian Peterson – Best O-Line, best back-up, most explosive runner.
2. LaDanian Tomlinson – Losing Cam Cameron really hurt LT this year, but his numbers are still great for a first round pick and he’s a gamer.
3. Joseph Addai – Potent offense and catches the ball out of the backfield.
4. Reggie Bush – 19.5 points per game and plays hurt.
5. Tom Brady – Doesn’t miss games, pass happy team, no problem running up the score (something Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy don’t do), but don’t expect 31.0 points per game again. I think 25.0 points per game is more realistic. So many damn weapons!
6. Randy Moss – Yes he might get injured, yes he’s another year older, but if you throw out the season with the Raiders, we don’t even have that discussion. Moss should be good for 20 plus points per game (26.72 right now).
7. Terrell Owens – It’s tough to take a WR this early, but you just can’t ignore the RB injury factor in today’s NFL and T.O. is putting up 23.3 points per game. Why would that change next year with Romo under center?
8. Brian Westbrook – Marshal Faulk type numbers when healthy. If McNabb isn’t in Philly, then Westy drops out of the first round. Currently killing it with 24.57 points per game.
9. Steven Jackson – Either a bit too low, or too high. Bulger can’t stay healthy, Bruce is long in the tooth and Torry Holt has a knee issue. There’s also a potential coaching change and an O-Line that’s a wreck. Good grief!
10. Marshawn Lynch – Very physical runner and produced with two different QB’s, which is always a good sign. Perfect spot to grab a RB, then snag a top flight WR on the way back.
11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Not the most durable WR, but as long as Chad Johnson is on the other side, T.J. is good for 20 plus points per game. I’ll take that from my first round pick any day. Housh is money right now at just over 22 points per game.
12. Reggie Wayne – Again, I’m looking for production with my first round pick and Reggie Wayne is the poster boy for that. He is averaging 19.39 points per tilt and he doesn’t miss games. Peyton Manning has proved to be highly durable and Wayne gets it done with or without Marvin Harrison.

Hold.....Hold.....HOLD!!!

How much longer can players with injury histories such as T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth hold on?

Every single one of the above mentioned players missed time last year (Peterson at Oklahoma) and the fate of hundreds of thousands of fantasy football leagues rest on their shoulders. The prescence of Moss and Stallworth makes Wes Welker a top five fantasy wide receiver and Welker is absolutely crushing his ADP (average draft position), so as a Welker owner - I need Stallworth and Moss on the field.

I hate to put it out there, but I think the fantasy football injury gremlins are going to rear their ugly heads and take out at least two of the players I wrote about in the first sentence. I can't even mention their names, kind of like not saying "Macbeth" in the theatre - it's bad luck.

Here are the injury odds on those studs for week 9: T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 3 to 1, Brian Westbrook - 2.5 to 1, Adrian Peterson 7 to 1, Randy Moss 6.5 to 1, and the odds on Donte Stallworth (who's shed his 2005 nickname of "Stallworthlessness) getting injured in week 9 are 5 to 1.

If T.J. Housh goes down, I'm gonna say it's with an injury to his right foot (possible heel injury). Westbrook could be any number of things, but it's always safe to bet on the knee with him. Moss and Stallworth both get the hamstring and last but not least, Adrian "All Day" Peterson would probably be sidelined with an ankle sprain if he were to go down.

Now nobody wants to see these guys get hurt, but it's definitely a reality we all have to face. Hold your breath and try to survive week 9 - good luck!

Fantasy Leaders in PPR Leagues After Week 6

Top 5 QB’s
1. Tom Brady - 28.61 points per game.
2. Tony Romo - 26.01 points per game.
3. Derek Anderson - 22.98 points per game.
4. Brett Favre - 19.39 points per game.
5. Carson Palmer - 23.13 points per game (That’s with a bye week factored in - wow).
No: Peyton Manning or Drew Brees.


Top 5 WR’s
1. Randy Moss - 24.83 points per game.
2. TJ Houshmandzadeh - 27.94 points per game.
3.Plaxico Burress - 21.45 points per game.
4. Braylon Edwards - 21.03 points per game.
5. Steve Smith - 20.48 points per game.
No: Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson or Terrell Owens.


Top 5 RB’s
1. Ronnie Brown - 25.70 points per game (3rd overall fantasy player in 07).
2. LaDanian Tomlinson - 24.26 points per game (5th overall fantasy player in 07).
3. Adrian Peterson - 23.64 points per game.
4. Brian Westbrook - 22.00 points per game.
5. Willis McGahee - 16.95 points per game.
No: Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker or Travis Henry.


Top 5 TE’s
1. Antonio Gates - 19.28 points per game.
2. Jason Witten - 16.90 points per game.
3. Tony Gonzalez - 16.67 points per game.
4. Kellen Winslow - 15.27 points per game.
5. Dallas Clark - 17.48 (Bye week factored in)
No: Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, Alge Crumpler

10 Things to Think About for Week Six.

1. T.O. puts up huge numbers, but he has poor technique when he attempts to catch the ball, as witnessed by his league leading dropped passes in ‘06, the two point conversion he dropped vs. the Bills on MNF and the pass that he dropped on the last drive. Way to come up small T.O.!

2. Bucs RB - Earnest Graham will be the undisputed starter with Michael Pittman out 6-8 weeks and Kenneth Darby will be moved to the number two spot. Look for the Bucs to try and make a deal with the Dolphins for the rights to Ricky Williams. Put Williams on your "sleeper radar".

3. Seahawks WR - Deion Branch will miss two games, so Nate Burleson gets a bump in value, as does Bobby Engram and TE Marcus Pollard.

4. Green Bay rookie WR - James Jones had two key fumbles against Chicago and that makes veteran Koren Robinson’s reinstatement that much more attractive from a waiver wire stand point. K-Rob would be a factor in the Packers’ offense that relies so heavily on the pass.

5. Damon Huard has not been ruled out in the Chiefs week 6 game at home vs. the Bengals, but if he can’t go Brodie Croyle will get his first NFL start and that should negatively impact Dwayne Bowe’s numbers. Consider this - as bad as the Bengals D have been, they look like a pretty darn good fantasy option against Croyle.

6. Look for Ravens WR - Demitrius Williams to have his best game of the year at home against the Rams porous secondary.

7. Fantasy owners who are sitting on Devery Henderson better look for points elsewhere, considering the state of the Saints’ O-Line, a QB in Brees that has thrown for only one TD in four games and the pending rotation of Terrance Copper and David Patten. Ugh!

8. Former Tennessee Volunteer Jason Witten is on pace for 92 receptions, 1302 yards and 12 TD’s. I don’t know about you, but he was by far the best value pick of my draft.

9. If Jamal Lewis misses any games, backup RB Jason Wright could be an excellent waiver wire play in PPR leagues.

10. From the "Necessity is the Mother of Invention" department, look no further than Browns WR - Tim Carter, who had three catches for 50 yards and a TD grab against the Patriots when Joe Jurevicius left the game. With the week six bye upon us, EVERYBODY is desperate for a warm body. Carter might be the guy for you if you are hurting for waiver wire bucks and or options.

Clayton and Paolantonio Guess Wrong.

John Clayton completely missed the boat and gave out bad fantasy information regarding Derrick Ward this past weekend. Clayton, based solely on his own conjecture, said on the air Saturday, that Ward wouldn’t play vs. the Eagles on Sunday night. We at FantasyFreakinFootball.com didn’t believe Mr. Clayton and I kept Ward in my lineup. Ward had said earlier in the week that he was ready to take whatever the Eagles would dish out, so that seemed enough to convince me that this guy was not about to surrender the starting job with a little ankle booboo. Apparently Clayton wasn’t convinced by that, or the fact that Ward had practiced on Thursday, before sitting out with "soreness" on Friday. Mr. Clayton should remember what Sergeant Joe Friday used to say, "just the facts."

Sal Paolantonio caught a piece of the ESPN disinformation bug, when he announced on air that Laurence Maroney would be active for the Patriots’ Monday Night Football tilt with the Bengals. Maroney watched the game in street clothes, just like many Maroney owners who didn't bother to switch out Maroney with Sammy Morris, based on the bogus report. What gives guys? If you don’t know, then offer up your OPINION - otherwise, if you want to guess, then get a job at Magic Mountain guessing peoples weight.

Pimp My Fantasy Ride

Aaron Stecker - I told people last week on the show to put him on your radar and here’s why: in 2004 when Poop McAllister went down with an injury, Stecker stepped into the starting RB role on the road vs. the Rams and broke off 106 yards rushing on 18 carries and had 1 TD, and threw in four receptions for 20 yards for good measure. Stecker followed those receiving numbers the following week with six receptions for 71 yards. The problem here is that only Barry Sanders could make chicken soup out of the Saints Chicken poop O-Line. They’re horrible right now.

Brian Leonard - My apologies to my father who dropped him last week. I drafted him in the WCOFF and the timing is awesome with Santana Moss out on bye and Deuce going bye-bye. The former Rutgers back is used to winning and runs angry. There’s no reason why he can’t have a solid showing against the Cowboys, especially in PPR leagues. I’m expecting 80 yards on the ground, 1 TD and 4 receptions for 30 yards. Believe it!

Kenny Watson - with as good as the Bengals O-Line looked against the Seahawks, Watson could help fantasy owners in a pinch with the bye weeks and all. Watson put up 60 yards and a TD on only nine carries. Me likey.

Andre Davis - He plays for the Houston Texans for those of you who don’t know who he is. He was targeted five times (the most of any Texans WR vs. the Colts) and hauled in 4 balls for 70 yards.

Cedric Wilson/Nate Washington - Wilson would be a gutsy start vs. the Cardinals, but could actually be a starter if Hines Ward doesn’t play. He would be sharing time with Nate Washington though.

Demetrius Williams - Williams just needs targets. He caught three balls on four targets, for a scintillating 17.3 yards per reception. If Todd Heap gets hurt, or Mason, or Clayton, he’s got value.

Earnest Graham - This Buccaneer was great after contact, ran hard and put up 75 yards and two TD’s on only eight carries. One of the TD’s was from 28 yards out, so he’s no fluke. With Cadillac on the injury report virtually every week, I think Graham would be a nice little pick up.

Welcome to Must Win Town - Population 1

Week 3 is almost upon us and it's always fun to find yourself in a must win situation after two heartbreaking losses. Better still, is the fear factor of knowing that I will be going against LaDanian Tomlinson, who seems due for a breakout game. Last year Red Ryder and I stared down LT in the playoffs of our WCOFF satellite league, in route to our championship victory - so I take heart in knowing that it can be done. The over/under on LT's point total for week three in ppr leagues is 30 points and the smart money is on the over.

This is what I expect to see in week three of the NFL - lots of impact injuries! Where are the injuries that change the fantasy landscape as quickly as a Donovan McNabb torn ACL, or Randy Moss hamstring tear? Make no mistake, like cocaine residue in Lindsay Lohan's purse, it might not be seen by the naked eye, but it's there. The injury bug is waiting to sink it's disease ridden teeth into your fantasy team, so the question you have to ask yourself is - "do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya?" Do you have the depth to handle the losses of early producers like Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan, Braylon Edwards and Plaxico Burress?

Teams that have been living high off the Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards and LaMont Jordan hog, have to ask themselves how long that gravy train will last. Conversely, Reggie Bush, LT, Steven Jackson and Peyton Manning owners' will at some point get the pendulum swing of production come flying back towards them. Willie Parker, Travis Henry, Frank Gore, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson and Rudy Johnson owners should continue to see a steady stream of consistency - as long as these studs stay healthy. Peyton Manning doesn't miss starts, but can the same be said for Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan? There is a ticking timebomb in Randy Moss' hammy and only God knows when that baby will detonate.

Keep in mind that impact injuries, combined with brutal bye week losses, will ultimately tell the story in your fantasy league - despite how the first two week prologue has read.

If you are also entering must win town, you can join me in the bar. I'll be the guy yelling for Peyton Manning and the Colts to get their redzone act in gear, Santana Moss to finally find the endzone and Detroit to keep hucking the ball around the field like recess football.